Southwest Indian Ocean SST Variability: Its Local Effect and Remote Influence on Asian Monsoons*

An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used to examine the role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in regional climate variability. In particular, the authors focus on the effect of the basinwide warming that occurs during December through May after the mature phase of El Niño. To elucidate the relative importance of local and remote forcing, model solutions were sought for experiments where SST anomalies are inserted in the (i) tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans, (ii) tropical Pacific Ocean, and (iii) tropical Indian Ocean. A 10-member ensemble simulation is carried out for each of the three forcing scenarios. The model solutions demonstrate that precipitation variations over the southwest Indian Ocean are tied to local SST anomalies and are highly reproducible. Changes in the Indian Ocean–Walker circulation suppress precipitation over the tropical west Pacific–Maritime Continent, contributing to the development of a low-level anticyclone over the Philippine and South China Seas. Our model results indicate that more than 50% of the total precipitation anomalies over the tropical west Pacific–Maritime Continent is forced by remote Indian Ocean SST anomalies, offering an additional mechanism for the Philippine Sea anticyclone apart from Pacific SST. This anticyclone increases precipitation along the East Asian winter monsoon front from December to May. The anomalous subsidence over the Maritime Continent in conjunction with persistent anomalies of SST and precipitation over the Indian Ocean in spring prevent the northwestward migration of the ITCZ and the associated deep moist layer, causing a significant delay in the Indian summer monsoon onset in June by 6–7 days. At time scales of 5 days, however, the reproducibility of the northward progression of the ITCZ during the onset is low. Results indicate that Indian Ocean SST anomalies during December through May that develop in response to both atmospheric and oceanic processes to El Niño need to be considered for a complete understanding of regional climate variability, particularly around the Indian Ocean rim.